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Paul Douglas on Weather

A Fine Tuesday, Then Showery Rest of the Week. 60s in a Week.

Predicting a Spring in Your Step Next Week

The key operative word today is....long. As in long walks. Long hair. Long lines.  Mercifully, a long, lingering winter is probably not in the cards. "But Paul, we had blizzards the last 2 Aprils!" Yes, that memory is tattooed onto my memory banks. But the weather pattern this spring is dramatically different than the last 2 winters.

The fresh bursts of frigid air required for extreme snowfall amounts are bottled up over northern Canada. We'll see hiccups of chilly air, maybe a little slush, but hopefully no monster-snows in the coming weeks.

If anyone asks (doubtful) MSP has picked up 44 inches of snow this winter season; 10 inches less than average for an entire winter. Rain showers return tomorrow into Friday, as a sloppy front pushes through town. The weekend looks drier, and that warm front we've been promising is still coming. Models show 60s early next week with a few T-storms. That'll help me keep my sense of humor.

一级国产毛片完整免费Oh, until further notice, due to coronavirus I'll only be telling inside jokes.

Weather Service: EF-1 Tornado Struck Southwestern Wisconsin. Tornadoes in March are rare, but possible at this latitude. Star Tribune has details: "The National Weather Service in La Crosse confirms that an EF-1 tornado struck southwestern Wisconsin over the weekend, damaging barns and outbuidings but causing no injuries. The tornado struck around 8:30 p.m. Saturday near Potosi, in Grant County, and was on the ground for about five minutes, traveling about 7 miles (11 kilometers). The weather service says barns and trees were damaged and a house sustained minor damage, but no injuries were reported."

Winter Snowfall To Date. If we don't get any more accumulating snow in April (a possibility, but I wouldn't put too much money down on that bet) we would end the winter snow season 10" lighter than usual. Average MSP snowfall is about 54". We'll see - feeling lucky? Me neither. Maps: Praedictix and AerisWeather.

MSP Meteogram. ECMWF (top) and NOAA GFS (bottom) show 60s early next week with a chance of thunder. Graphics: WeatherBell.

Full Latitude Trough Potential一级国产毛片完整免费. If the GFS forecast for 500mb winds the evening of April 13 are to be believed a full latitude trough may spin up a formidable storm capable of severe weather in the Mississippi River Valley and a cold rain for the Upper Midwest.

Preliminary Climate Summary for March. Dr. Mark Seeley has a good wrap-up of what was a fairly quiet and mild March in this week's edition of : "March will wind up as a warmer than normal month, with most climate stations reporting a mean monthly temperature from 3 to 6 degrees F above normal. Extreme temperature values for the month ranged from -30 degrees F at Cotton (St Louis County) on the 2nd to 65 degrees F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) on the 8th…although this temperature may be surpassed by high temperatures on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation 5 times during March of 2020. Although precipitation for the month to date has been less than normal, the forecast calls for better chances for precipitation during the last 4 days of the month, with some expected amounts over 1 inch. This may bring monthly totals closer to normal, or even push them above normal..."

Warm, Humid Weather Could Slow Coronavirus. The Washington Post's has a timely article; here's an excerpt: "...A new study over the weekend finds that 90 percent of the coronavirus transmissions so far have occurred within a specific temperature (37 to 63 degrees) and absolute humidity range. For areas outside this zone, the virus is still spreading, but more slowly, according to the study by two scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The paper, which was shared with the public before it was peer reviewed for the benefit of public health officials, notes that even in warm parts of the United States, such as Texas and Florida, cases are not exhibiting the same growth rates as they have in New York and Washington state. The best-case scenario, according to the study’s authors, is that the rate of spread in parts of the Northern Hemisphere will slow as temperatures warm and humidity increases..."

Image credit: "The growth rate of covid-19 cases, normalized by population, through March 22."

The Ozone Layer is Healing and Redirecting Wind Flows Around the World. has the update: "The hole in the ozone layer above Antarctica is continuing to recover and it is leading to changes in atmospheric circulation – the flow of air over Earth’s surface that causes winds. Using data from satellite observations and climate simulations, Antara Banerjee at the University of Colorado Boulder and her colleagues modelled changing wind patterns related to the layer’s recovery. Its healing is largely thanks to the Montreal Protocol agreed internationally in 1987, which banned the production of .Before 2000, a belt of air currents called the mid-latitude jet stream in the southern hemisphere had been gradually shifting towards the South Pole. Another tropical jet stream called the Hadley cell, responsible for trade winds, tropical rain-belts, hurricanes and subtropical deserts, had been getting wider..."

File image of Houston and New Orleans一级国产毛片完整免费 from low orbit: NASA International Space Station.

Well, At Least There's Golf. A story at caught my eye: "...Golf, obviously, is played outside, and adheres to a decorum which asks players to maintain a respectful distance from each other at all times. You also wear a glove on one hand when you’re playing. According to my calculations, this automatically cuts your chance of picking up germs on the golf course by 50 percent. In other words, it’s a game where a certain level of social distancing is already baked in...There are exactly 36 parts of a golf course that you could catch coronavirus from: 18 of them are the metal flagsticks sticking out of the holes on the green, which are touched by dozens if not hundreds of people per day when they remove them to putt. And even though everyone takes the flagstick out when they putt, leaving it in isn’t actually against the rules!..."

60 F. high yesterday in the Twin Cities.

49 F. average high on March 30 at MSP.

38 F. maximum temperature on March 30, 2019.

March 31, 1896: A strong snowstorm dumps 13.5 inches of snow at Maple Plain. Vivid lightning is also in the storm with 10-12 flashes per minute. Visibility was down to less than one block. The high temperature was 57 at Maple Plain the day before.

March 31, 1843: The low temperature at Ft. Snelling plummets to -11.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant. Winds: E 7-12. High: 58

WEDNESDAY: Unsettled with a few rain showers. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 52

THURSDAY: Milder with showers, possible thunder. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 44. High: 57

FRIDAY: Showers linger, a damp breeze. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 39. High: 51

SATURDAY: Peeks of sun, a drier day. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 25. High: 49

SUNDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 32. High: 57

一级国产毛片完整免费 MONDAY: Milder with a few T-showers nearby. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 44. High: near 60

Climate Stories...

American Climate: She Thought She Could Ride Out the Storm, Her Daughter Said. It Was a Fatal Mistake. Here's an excerpt of another powerful story in an ongoing series at : "...It had been 22 years since Hurricane Opal hit the region. Ahead of that storm, Agnes fled Mexico Beach and drove six hours out of town. When she returned, her home was hardly damaged. Gina suspects this is the reason that her mother decided not to evacuate when Michael was headed their way. "The regret is that I didn't realize she was staying in her home," Gina said. "I wish that I could have known that. But I honestly don't think I would have been able to do anything." Although scientists can't say that a specific hurricane is linked to climate change, that warmer ocean temperatures fuel more dangerous hurricanes, making Category 4 and 5 storms more frequent, with higher rainfall. Warming global temperatures lead to sea level rise, and higher seas means more severe storm surge during hurricanes..."

Maybe Keep It In The Ground?: Headlines and links via Climate Nexus: "A glut in global oil supply amid a deep price drop and decreased demand from the coronavirus means that the world is quickly running out of storage facilities for its oil, analysts say. As Saudi Arabia and Russia remain tangled in a price war begun in February, where both countries refuse to slow production, analysts told Fortune that more than 75% of storage sites are already full and the world could run out of places to put the oil by April. Oil currently in production “will just move from a tank in Saudi, probably, into someone else’s tank or just sit on a vessel,” analyst Alexander Booth told the New York Times. “It is certainly not needed一级国产毛片完整免费.” (, $)

Image credit: Clean Technica.

One Planet: The Impact Of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases. in San Francisco has an interview; here's the intro: "On this edition of Your Call’s One Planet Series, we're discussing the links between climate change and infectious diseases. According to the World Health Organization, environmental threats to human health include "climate changes in ecosystems due to loss of biodiversity, supplies of freshwater, land degradation, urbanization, and stresses on food-producing systems." How is the climate crisis and the loss of biodiversity impacting the spread of infectious diseases?..."

Yet Another Study Confirms: Electric Cars Reduce Climate Pollution. has the post; here's the intro: "Electric cars are better for the climate than gas-powered vehicles in nearly every part of the world. That's the clear, unequivocal finding of the first study that conducted a global examination of the current and future greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles (EVs) and gas-powered cars. This study directly refutes myths perpetuated by climate science deniers and EV antagonists, who claim that EVs are . The team of European researchers behind the  build on recent similar findings by the research group Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Each of these studies have taken a worldwide look at the life cycle emissions from EVs that are charged by a variety of forms of electricity generation, from the cleanest to the dirtiest of grids. The new study again  that electric cars are more polluting than gas-powered cars because they are charged by coal-fired electricity..."

Living Through a Pandemic – Without Water: Headlines and links from Climate Nexus: "Many of the 2 million Americans without access to running water are experiencing new levels of anxiety and trying new coping mechanisms during the coronavirus pandemic, HuffPost reports. Native Americans are 19 times more likely to not have access to running water than white people, research shows, and many now find themselves burning through water more frequently as they wash their hands and are cut off from communal showers and other sources of water. HuffPost follows Navajo Nation member Shanna Yazzie, who is trying to keep water stocked in the house for her two children and 79-year-old mother – some of it from a water supply that is polluted with radioactive materials. “The anxiety is sickening,” Yazzie told HuffPost. “Your mind keeps racing with ‘what ifs.’ You can’t eat. You lose your appetite. You’re shaking. You’re sleepless. Your mind, it just constantly races with negative thoughts. Thoughts like, ‘We’re gonna die.’” ()

File image: NOAA.

The Analogy Between COVID-19 and Climate Change is Eerily Precise. A post at (paywall) caught my eye: "...First deny the problem, then say the solution is too expensive? The playbook here is all too familiar. The parallel to climate change, in other words, was even tighter than I realized. “We went through the stages of climate change denial in the matter of a week,” said Gordon Pennycook, a psychologist at the University of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada, who studies how misinformation spreads. Naomi Oreskes, a historian of science who has studied the origins of climate disinformation, spelled out the pattern in an email: “First, one denies the problem, then one denies its severity, and then one says it is too difficult or expensive to fix, and/or that the proposed solution threatens our freedom.” These strategies, Oreskes explained, can exist side by side, depending on the context..."

File image: Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Dry, Nice Monday Ahead - More Rain Later This Week

Some Rain And Snow Tallies From Saturday - Sunday

A system brought rain and even snow across portions of the state this weekend. Here's a look at some of the snow totals across central Minnesota. In this portion of the state, Dassel picked up the most snow with 4.1", with a co-op observer reporting 4" in St. Cloud. Across the Twin Cities, most of the snow fell in the western half with up to an inch reported in areas like New Hope, Excelsior, Chanhassen, and Prior Lake.

Heavier amounts fell as you went into northern Minnesota, with 7.5" reported in Holyoke, 6" in both Wrenshall and near Island Lake, and 5.8" at NWS Duluth (which was reported at 7 AM).

Meanwhile, looking at precipitation (rain and melted snow) strickly on Saturday, over an inch fell at MSP. The 1.07" that fell at MSP was just short of the record... quite literally. The record for the day was 1.08" in 1896. Meanwhile, St. Cloud airport broke their record for the day with 1.40" reported, beating the previous record of 0.80" in 1920.

一级国产毛片完整免费Looking at 48 hour totals, MSP picked up 1.32" of precipitation, with 1.71" at the St. Cloud airport.


More Rain This Week

Graphic: Potential precipitation moving in Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Courtesy WeatherBell.

一级国产毛片完整免费We will be watching a couple of systems this upcoming week that look to bring some more rain to the region. The first slides in as we go through Tuesday Night into Wednesday. This system looks to bring about a quarter-inch of rain with it at the moment.

Graphic: Forecast precipitation type and frontal boundaries Thursday morning. Courtesy NOAA/Weather Prediction Center.

A second system - a bit stronger than the first - will work in Thursday into Friday. That one could bring in over a half an inch of rain (though remember we are several days out and this can change).



Another Cool, Unsettled Week Shaping Up
By Paul Douglas

Will warmer weather help to kill off COVID-19, at least in the short term? Great question. A recent paper uploaded to the research site SSRN finds that 90 percent of the coronavirus transmission has occurred within a temperature range of 37 to 63 degrees F. According to MIT scientists, the virus is spreading more slowly in tropical climates. We're still groping in the dark, considering this virus emerged into the human population in December. We still don't know what we don't know.

After a raw, windblown Sunday spring returns today and Tuesday, with highs well up into the 50s. More showery rains are likely Wednesday into Friday, as a slow-moving cold front approaches.

Significant warmth keeps getting pushed back, but models bring 60s, even a shot at 70s into Minnesota next week. With increasing warmth and water vapor overhead will come a rising risk of T-storms and flooding, similar to what we experienced on Saturday, when 1-2 inches of rain fell. Throw in a few warm fronts and we'll be greening up soon.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and spectacular. Wake up 32. High 56. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 3-8 mph.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 33. High 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled with a few rain showers. Wake up 40. High 54. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: Showers, clap of thunder possible. Wake up 44. High 57. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Rain tapers, cooler wind kicks in. Wake up 39. High 51. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 28. High 52. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 3-8 mph.
SUNDAY: Clouds increase, few showers. Wake up 34. High 54. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.


This Day in Weather History
March 30th

1938: Springtime flooding hits Warroad and Grand Marais.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
March 30th

Average High: 49F (Record: 83F set in 1968)
Average Low: 30F (Record: -3F set in 1923)
Average Precipitation: 0.08" (Record: 1.51" set in 1933)
Average Snowfall: 0.2" (Record: 2.4" set in 1934)
Record Snow Depth: 18" in 1965


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
March 30th

Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 42 minutes and 37 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes and 7 seconds
*When Do We Climb To 13 Hours Of Daylight? April 5th (13 hours, 1 minute, and 18 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/Before 6:30 AM: April 13th (6:30 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 8:00 PM: April 16th (8:00 PM)


Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

As we start off your Monday in the Twin Cities we’ll see a little bit of fog or freezing fog through the mid-morning hours, quickly giving way to mainly sunny skies. Temperatures will start off around freezing but climb into the mid-50s for highs.

一级国产毛片完整免费A dry, quiet, and mainly sunny Monday is expected across the state. Similar to the Twin Cities, some areas of central and southern Minnesota could start the day off with some fog. Highs will range from the upper 30s and low 40s along portions of the North Shore to potentially some upper 50s in southwestern Minnesota.

These highs will be up to 10F degrees above average across the state, with the greatest departures from average found in western Minnesota. The average high in the Twin Cities for March 30th is 49F.

Highs will remain in the 50s through the middle of the week in the Twin Cities, but some cooler air will work in with a system moving into the upper Midwest late in the week and high pressure diving south out of Canada behind it.


National Weather Forecast

一级国产毛片完整免费As we go into Monday, an area of low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into the Northeast - as well as an area of low pressure off the Northeast Coast - will help produce rain and snow from Michigan into New England. A low moving into the central United States will produce rain chances from the Northern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley, with storms possible from Kansas southward. A system moving into the Northwest will produce rain and snow.

一级国产毛片完整免费Through Tuesday evening, areas that could see at least an inch of rain include the Pacific Northwest, Deep South, and in portions of the Northeast. Some of the heaviest snow will fall in the mountains in the Northwestern U.S., with several feet possible.


Heavy Rain In Kauai Saturday

一级国产毛片完整免费Very heavy rain fell on the Hawaiian island of Kauai Saturday, with some areas seeing over 7" of rain. Officially in Lihue 5.35" of rain fell, marking the sixth wettest March day on record (with records back to 1905). Due to this heavy rain, a Flash Flood Emergency was issued during the morning hours.


Emergency officials going door to door after tornado rips through Jonesboro, Ark.

: "The City of Jonesboro took a direct hit Saturday evening from a tornado, that stayed on the ground for almost 20 miles. As daylight begins to shine on the damage, emergency officials say there were only six minor injuries caused by all the damage. As of 8:30 a.m. crews had finished going door to door on Airport Road, reporting no injuries and only minor gas leaks from a few cars that were thrown upsidedown."

Healing ozone layer stopped migration of Southern Hemisphere winds

: "Scientists have long known that the appearance of the ozone hole over Antarctica in the 1980s initiated wide-ranging impacts on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere, altering the jet stream, pushing subtropical dry zones towards the South Pole and expanding the tropical rain belt into previously dry regions. But these shifting wind patterns seemed to pause around the year 2000, about the time that the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty controlling the widely used chemicals that created the ozone hole, began to take effect.  Now, a new NOAA study has concluded that declining atmospheric concentrations of once widely used ozone-depleting chemicals - including spray-can propellants and refrigerants - that has propelled the recovery of the ozone layer was indeed responsible for arresting these changing weather patterns."

Fewer Monarch Butterflies Heading Through San Antonio This Spring

: "As monarch butterflies make their way through Texas this spring, the migratory population heading north from winter roosts in the Mexican mountains is about 50 percent smaller than last year, the World Wildlife Fund Mexico announced. Conservationists calculate the monarch butterfly population by measuring the amount of forest occupied by the overwintering insects. Mexican officials said 11 colonies were located this season, covering 2.83 hectares, or about 7 acres. The tally represents a 53 percent decrease from last year’s count of 6.05 hectares, or about 15 acres."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter () and like me on Facebook ()!

 - D.J. Kayser